The Premier League True Form Table

Despite a lapse and defeat last week, Wolves recent run still stand them in good stead as they are at or near the top of many of the individual table this week, though their gap has been heavily cut as they lost just over 4 TrueForm algorithm points this week, while Brentfords heavy scoring display against Man United rocketed them up the table. Newcastle and Chelsea occupy the last of the top 4 places, which means this weekend's encounter might be a spicy affair.

Unsurprisingly, a story which has been less about form and more about consistently underperforming domestically all season sees Man United and Spurs languishing in the bottom 2 places. Southampton, not really a surprise to see them in the bottom 3 either, but 4th bottom is.... Arsenal? While they may still be 2nd in the actual Premier League table. Statistically, Arsenal have had the easiest run of anyone in the last 7 games, and they just haven't capitalised. Ticking along, perhaps, but returning the amount of goals and points they should have? Certainly not, as perhaps their focus has been on Europe and not the league.

Moving on to points achieved vs expected points reveals a very similar story to the overall table. Wolves, Brentford and Chelsea performing well above their expected metrics, though, again, Wolves gap at the top is cut this week. Man City, as champions are expected to pick up a lot of points in any given form period and they haven't disappointed, outscoring their expected figure by almost a third. The bottom 4 are unchanged, though this time Arsenal slip into the bottom three. Not because they haven't picked up points, but they should have got far more than they managed. Manchester United and Spurs need no further introduction at this stage.

As we reach the end of the season, being able to net as many of your chances as possible definitely helps, and in this case, it's Brentford who have been knocking them in, and while Newcastle, in second place have actually scored more, they had a higher expected goals, meaning Brentford get credit for picking them up against tougher opponents. Wolves are still hanging about in third and the top four sees Brighton make an appearance both Ipswich and Chelsea move up a decent number of places as they both found the net against opposition that should have made for a very tough game for both of them. At the other end, Arsenal finally slip to the bottom. Not because they haven't been scoring, but with close margins at the bottom, being just 3.6 goals under your expected at this stage is enough to head to the basement. Southampton, the ever present near the bottom again, and the bluntness of Man United's league finishing shows them up once again.

The goals conceded table finally sees a bit of change here. Wolves, back to the top as they have been in defence. Bournemouth also rise 4 spots to join them near the head of the table after seeing off Arsenal, while Everton and Nottingham Forest fall 5 and 7 places respectively, putting them from the top two places, down to the mid table. Spurs are at the bottom, we always knew they shipped goals at an alarming rate, but they used to score enough to even it out;- not so just lately. Ipswich's high of being near the top of the goals scored table is balanced out by being second bottom for goals conceded, the same story for Brighton as they slip to 4th from bottom. A clean sheet would be very welcome for any of the bottom 4 right now. Check the predictions to see if that's likely to happen.